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Capacity Planning for Production Systems

A practical framework for forecasting load, setting headroom, and scaling capacity ahead of incidents. Covers demand modeling, uncertainty bands, and cost-reliability tradeoffs.

32 min read 6 sections 5 interview questions
Capacity PlanningForecastingSREHeadroomReliability EngineeringTraffic ModelingCost OptimizationScaling

Capacity Planning Is Reliability Engineering with Economics

Under-provisioning causes incidents; over-provisioning burns margin. Good capacity planning balances reliability targets and cost constraints using explicit demand models and uncertainty bands.

Capacity Planning Loop

01

Demand forecast

Model baseline + seasonality + event spikes.

02

Service envelope

Translate forecast into CPU/memory/IO/network by tier.

03

Headroom policy

Set target utilization and reserve margin by criticality.

04

Stress and failure tests

Validate assumptions through load and degradation tests.

05

Review cadence

Update forecasts monthly/quarterly with observed error.

Typical Headroom Policy

TierTarget UtilizationReserved HeadroomReason
Critical online path50-60%40-50%absorbs bursts and partial failures
Important but non-critical65-75%25-35%balanced cost and reliability
Batch/offline75-85%15-25%can tolerate queueing delay

Forecast to Provisioning Flow

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⚠ WARNING

Common Failure

Using average load for planning while incidents occur at p95/p99 bursts and during partial dependency failures.

TIP

Interview Summary

Include uncertainty bands and explicit headroom policy. Point estimates alone are not production planning.

Interview Questions

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